понедельник, 29 декабря 2008 г.

Перспективы доллара.

Джим Роджерс - известный экономист. Один из тех, кто давно предупреждал о назревающем кризисе мировой экономики в целом и в частности штатов.
Видео интервью в котором обсуждаются перспективы доллара.


Для тех, кто не понимает английский. Суть интервью:

Несмотря на то, что "жопа" по всему миру. Доллар и США в особой заднице. У страны самая большая задолженность 13 триллионов долларов, и эта задолженость возрастает на триллион долларов каждые 15 месяцев. На вопрос, как же другие страны. Джим говорит, что так же не советует фунт (GPB) (Англия - вторая в мире страна по задолженности) и евро. И что даже швейцарский франк (CHF), в котором он держал много своих средств не выглядит сегодня надежной валютой. И что он считает надежными валюты азиатского региона например японскую йену (JPY)

На вопрос почему же, доллар растет в последнее вреся Джим отвечает, что это всего лишь последствия огромных обьемов закрытий шортов по доллару (шорт=short - продажа доллара или покупка других валют за доллары, закрытие шортов - по сути обратная операция т.е. покупка долларов за другие валюты). Джим говорит, что возможно ралли по доллару продлится еще некоторое время, неделю может больше, никто не может знать, но в среднесрочной перспективе его ждет огромное падение.

UPD:
Привожу интервью из видео в тестовом режиме на английском.

(Howard)We here in London talking about US dollar with Jim Rogers. Hello Jim.
(Jim Rogers)Howard, nice to see you.

(Howard)Good to have you here. )Jim you've been no fan about us dollar for quite a long time, but right now we've seen the green back rally very very well and this actually among the best performing asset class in the world if you consider currency asset class.

(Jim Rogers) I do consider currency an asset class, I own currencies. Yen is been even better, and I own the Yen as well. Yes there is the huge force liquidation of all positions of everything. And as you know gigantic shorts on the us dollar and they all have been forced to cover. This is not real rally American press said this because of safe heaven. Puppy cock it's nothing to do with any of that.It's doing people forced to cover their shorts. The dollar is going to continue to rally for a while, it's, and it will be continue powerful rally. I hope to use this rally to get out of all of my dollars.

(Howard)OK. To just split it out, talking about safe heaven. Is the us economy bigger, more flexible than another economies in the world, more diversified.

(Jim Rogers)You're said like whit house spokesman. I mean you're stocks exchange stocks-man. No, of course not. With the largest debt nation in the world. We owe the rest of the world trillions of dollars. Owing 13 trillions of dollars. Our debt increasing one trillion dollars every fifteen month. No, it's not a save heaven. It's a place to get out of here, big changes controls eventually in the united states.

(Howard)What about another countries in Europe for example I mean they are certain put a lot of money in their system, the UK is pretty deep in debt, similar to united states, I mean is that reason. In comparison may be the dollar looks not as bad as some other places.

(Jim Rogers)I not suggest you to own sterling. No, in any circumstances. The Swiss frank is even come under question worried me because they are doing. Euro is less flow than dollar it's terrible overflowed. It's the cancer struggle I have - where to put money. I can't to find sound currency it's hard, these days.

(Howard) OK. The other question is what we see is American investors who piled in overseas investments in say 2005 to 2007 have now been with drying money in dramatic rate. When that happens, people generally stay away overseas investments for a number of years. That might be actually be propping of the dollar for some people. What do you think about that?

(Jim Rogers) Yes, that part of that, i mean that's not a short position per say. But it's money outside the country. If people losing money in their IBM. They not going to call their broker saying - "Buy me some more Botswana" Are you kidding i don't know Where Botswana is, Whatever that thing, get me out of this and take their money home" of course it's what happening, part of what's happening.

(Howard)So, for how long do you expect dollar to rally and what will happen after that?

(Jim Rogers)So I'm the world's worst market timer, and the worlds worst trader so i don't have a clue. I will have to play as it goes. I mean a presume next spring. It's not a prediction may be next week. I'm watching as it goes. Looks there is more legs for this rally but who knows.

(Howard) Thank you very much.

(Jim Rogers)Thank you.

Возможно если не будет лень, то переведу максимально дословно. Вобще прослушав уже несколько речей Роджерса понимаю, что он мне нравится. Веселый старикашка. Часто шутит, причем очень неплохо.

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